Sorry for keeping the lights shut for so long but here are some good news- I am getting ready to restart both my MSN and SK endeavor within days so stay tuned !
]]>NEW OFFICE POLICY
Dress Code:
1) You are advised to come to work dressed according to your salary.
2) If we see you wearing Prada shoes and carrying a Gucci bag, we will assume you are doing well financially and therefore do not need a raise.
3) If you dress poorly, you need to learn to manage your money better, so that you may buy nicer clothes, and therefore you do not need a raise.
4) If you dress just right, you are right where you need to be and therefore you do not need a raise.
Sick Days:
We will no longer accept a doctor's statement as proof of sickness. If you are able to go to the doctor, you are able to come to work.
Personal Days:
Each employee will receive 104 personal days a year. They are called Saturdays & Sundays.
Bereavement Leave:
This is no excuse for missing work. There is nothing you can do for dead friends, relatives or co-workers . Every effort should be made to have non-employees attend the funeral arrangements in your place. In rare cases where employee involvement is necessary, the funeral should be scheduled in the late afternoon. We will be glad to allow you to work through your lunch hour and subsequently leave one hour early.
Bathroom Breaks:
Entirely too much time is being spent in the toilet. There is now a strict three-minute time limit in the stalls. At the end of three minutes, an alarm will sound, the toilet paper roll will retract, the stall door will open, and a picture will be taken. After your second offense, your picture will be posted on the company bulletin board under the "Chronic Offenders" category. Anyone caught smiling in the picture will be sectioned under the company's mental health policy.
Lunch Break:
* Skinny people get 30 minutes for lunch, as they need to eat more, so that they can look healthy.
* Normal size people get 15 minutes for lunch to get a balanced meal to maintain their average figure.
* Chubby people get 5 minutes for lunch, because that's all the time needed to drink a Slim-Fast.
Thank you for your loyalty to our company. We are here to provide a positive employment experience. Therefore, all questions, comments, concerns, complaints, frustrations, irritations, aggravations, insinuations, allegations, accusations, contemplations, consternation and input should be directed elsewhere.
Signed,
-Management
Yesterday it was healthcare and large multinationals, today defense and oil and gas... Not sure what to expect next. Pretty much every sector has been hammered so take your own pick :) I am thinking industrials are a good target as soon as GM and Chrysler are pushed into bankruptcy...
Don't even know what to say, I was hopeful but most recent moves by Obama and Co are scaring the hell out of me...
He needs to replay this video several times- source -Bespoke...
Stay safe out there if you can. It is not an easy thing to do, that's for sure...
Below are the charts from Finviz on healthcare and defense...
The world economy is now faced with 4 very distinct alternative scenarios (which by the way change after each substantial government action) and thus your asset allocation change accordingly every time you perceive we are heading to a new "final" scenario. In my opinion we are now in the process of moving from "Japan" scenario to the "Yes We Keynes" one.
Source- Allianz.com
]]>"Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Elliott Wave International Inc.'s Robert Prechter, who advised shorting U.S. stocks three months before the bear market began, said investors should end that bet after the Standard & Poor's 500 Index tumbled to a 12-year low.He warned of a "sharp and scary" rebound for anyone still wagering on a retreat, according to this month's "Elliott Wave Theorist." Short selling is the sale of borrowed stock in the hope of profiting by buying the securities later at a lower price and returning them to the shareholder."
"The S&P 500 has sunk 52 percent since its October 2007 record as financial firms worldwide posted $1.11 trillion in credit-related losses and the U.S., Europe and Japan fell into the first simultaneous recessions since World War II. In July 2007, Prechter advised shorting U.S. stocks, saying "aggressive speculators should return to a fully leveraged short position." He has now reversed that call.
Prechter's recommendation follows the advice of JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s U.S. equity strategist Thomas Lee, who today issued a "trading buy" recommendation on the S&P 500. The index fell to 743.33 yesterday. Lee set a "short-term" forecast of 800."
For whatever it's worth - I am actually in agreement this time but based on two different indicators- preferred stocks and discounts on closed-end funds. Below is my logical sequence
All of the above leads me to believe that market rebound is currently in the works. If preferreds keep going up - I will deploy a lot more cash and sell short term puts to take advantage of the declining volatility.
P.S. To answer some of the questions I received over the last several weeks:
1. I don't buy preferred stocks using an ETF
2. I use stop sells to limit my downside!
source: bespoke
Interesting pair trade could be something like short SUN/ long FTO.
Disclaimer- I do own some FTO plus remember this is not a recommendation in any way shape or form, simply some random thoughts on the matter :)
source for the charts: www.finviz.com
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chart is from finviz.com
]]>P.S. What in the world was this WFC write off about? I am assuming it is related to the BAC and Citi prefs downgrade? Starting to get a little worried about my 1% exposure to BAC's prefs :(
Friday the 13th marks doomsday for many leveraged companies as they prepare to confirm to lenders whether or not they have breached covenants on their debt.Most companies financed with riskier loans are given 45 days from the end of a quarter to confirm that they have met covenants. Debt specialists and private equity funds expect on Friday to mark the point from which a flood of covenant breaches will start coming through.
As an example Charter is expected to file Chapter 11 imminently ... The question now simply seems to be- what kind of damage will this do to the already struggling banks? According to FT:
Creditors face much bigger losses in the case of a default.
Senior lenders to leveraged buy-outs will probably recover only 51 per cent to 70 per cent of their invesment, according to Fitch Ratings, compared with 70 per cent to 90 per cent on previous estimates.
The question now seems to be simply- who is next and how much will it cost. Or may be the upcoming Valentine's Day will work it's charm once again, all of sudden the "evil" bankers realize that changing covenants on outstanding debt is a much easier way to retain some value for most of these LBO loans. Let's call this February 14th- the "fall in love with the bankers day!"
Stay safe out there and cheers, skepticalcapitalist@gmail.com
]]>P.S. Frontier energy "FTO"- the smallest one of the US refiners keeps popping up on most of my screens. They have run up quite nicely but any dips could be an opportunity to reload.
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