TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Economy Lost 190,000 Jobs in October
September /October Job Losses Largest Since September/October 2001
Job Losses Could Reach 1.5 Million Next Six Months.
Santa Rosa, CA - November 4, 2008 - TrimTabs estimates 190,000 jobs were lost in October, the highest level since March 2003. What's more job losses could average well in excess of 200,000 monthly over the next six months as the employment market begins to shed jobs in earnest in response to rapidly deteriorating economic conditions.
TrimTabs' estimate of 190,000 jobs lost in October is based primarily upon analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. Historically, TrimTabs' payroll job estimates have been more accurate than the Bureau of Labor Statistics' survey results which will be released Friday, November 7, 2008.
"The credit market meltdown has knocked the U.S. economy flat on its back," said Charles Biderman, Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs.
Other indicators confirm the recent deterioration in the labor market. Income and employment tax collections of all U.S. workers on payrolls fell to 1.35% year-over-year in October, well below the 3.0% year-over-year level indicative of positive job growth. TrimTabs online job index is down 8.3% for the month and down 19.8% year-over-year. Weekly unemployment claims remain well above 450,000 and continuing claims are at 3.72 million, their highest levels since June 2003.
So far this year, TrimTabs' estimates the U.S. economy has lost 1.16 million jobs. "What is most worrisome is that job losses are likely to average 250,000 jobs monthly for the next four to six months," Biderman said. "Until the credit markets resume functioning, the U.S. economy will continue to contract."
TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com
P.S. The good news is that current estimates for job losses could be actually higher than what TT is projecting and BLS has been coming consistently below the "real number", so I won't be surprised if we get a few more days of "cheers"
