"I have seen the future and it is very much like the present - only longer"
Kehlog Albran

Some the frequent visitors to my blog might recall a short article I posted back on March 3rd about the payroll growth numbers moving firmly into negative territory...

Don't forget that at the time expectation on the Street was for a positive job growth, and not even the most skeptical economists anticipated a negative one. The result as we all know now was very painful...

"Nonfarm payroll employment edged down in February (-63,000), and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 4.8 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today"

TrimTabs data turned out to be on target once again and anyone with a bearish portfolio stance (yours truly was one of them :)) was well rewarded...

If you quickly glance at my posts since the Bear Sterns meltdown, you'll notice that my portfolio stance is no longer outright bearish and I have actually been slightly less skeptical about market's short term direction. So again here are some good news that actually forced me to reconsider adding more short positions on the latest bounce:

TrimTabs now estimates that

"The labor market is holding up better than expected. The TrimTabs Online Job Postings Index actually rose 1.6% in the past three weeks"

So for whatever reason, be it temporary or longer lasting, the labor market could very well be holding up better than many bears are currently anticipating. My prediction as of today is simple- if March's payroll number does come in a firmly positive territory, we might just have another reason for a short term rally on our hands, which would mean that my slightly bullish stance is justified for now...

By the way- here is one more glimpse into another potentially positive development- again as reported by TrimTabs:

"Lost amid the wails of woe on Wall Street is that income growth is accelerating, not slowing... Taking a longer-term view, withholdings rose 4.6% year-over-year in the past four weeks and four days (Friday, February 22 through Wednesday, March 26), far exceeding the 2.7% year-over-year growth rate in all of January and February"

Hmm, sounds very intriguing? I am not sure again whether what we are seeing is merely a short term blip or is it an indication that things are truly getting better? I am still in a "skeptical" boat but for whatever its worth I am no longer net short the market...

Skepticalcapitalist@gmail.com